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Who’s ahead in the New Hampshire presidential Republican primary?

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

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ADULTS

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LV

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PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, New Hampshire, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Jan. 21-22
500LV
Jan. 21-22
500LV
Suffolk University
 Trump
60%
 Trump
60%

Trump

60%

Haley

38%
38%
Haley  Trump+22
Jan. 17-22
851LV
Jan. 17-22
851LV
J.L. Partners
 Trump
57%
 Trump
57%

Trump

57%

Haley

37%

DeSantis

3%
37%
 HaleyTrump+20
Jan. 21
850LV
Jan. 21
850LV
InsiderAdvantage
 Trump
62%
 Trump
62%

Trump

62%

Haley

35%
35%
Haley  Trump+28
Jan. 19-21
1,084LV
Jan. 19-21
1,084LV

Trafalgar Group is a partisan pollster for the Republican Party.

Trafalgar Group
 Trump
58%
 Trump
58%

Trump

58%

Haley

36%
36%
Haley  Trump+23
Jan. 19-20
500LV
Jan. 19-20
500LV
Suffolk University
 Trump
55%
 Trump
55%

Trump

55%

Haley

36%

DeSantis

6%
36%
 HaleyTrump+19
Jan. 18-20
673LV
Jan. 18-20
673LV
Emerson College
 Trump
50%
 Trump
50%

Trump

50%

Haley

35%

DeSantis

8%
35%
 HaleyTrump+15
Jan. 18-20
600LV
Jan. 18-20
600LV
American Research Group
 Trump
46%
 Trump
46%

Trump

46%

Haley

44%

DeSantis

6%
44%
 HaleyTrump+2
Jan. 16-20
712LV
Jan. 16-20
712LV
Monmouth University Polling Institute/The Washington Post
 Trump
52%
 Trump
52%

Trump

52%

Haley

34%

DeSantis

8%

Christie

1%
34%
 HaleyTrump+18
Jan. 16-19
1,242LV
Jan. 16-19
1,242LV
University of New Hampshire Survey Center
 Trump
50%
 Trump
50%

Trump

50%

Haley

39%

DeSantis

6%
39%
 HaleyTrump+11
Jan. 17-18
500LV
Jan. 17-18
500LV
Suffolk University
 Trump
52%
 Trump
52%

Trump

52%

Haley

35%

DeSantis

6%
35%
 HaleyTrump+16
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

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Candidate is an incumbent

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Republican-funded

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